Election 2020

Dates:October 10, 2020
Meets:Sa from 9:00 AM to 4:45 PM
Location:Online Zoom
Instructor:Instructor Information
Fee: $105.00

This course will take place online via Zoom: Sat. (10/10); 9:00 a.m.-4:45 p.m.; 12:15-1:30 p.m., lunch break. EST Mark Croatti is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting Topic: Election 2020 Time: Oct 10, 2020 09:00 AM Eastern Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89399983951?pwd=VVY2NHB4OE4welNiNzlpZ0hWOURSZz09 Meeting ID: 893 9998 3951 Passcode: 351663 Enjoy your class!

Sorry, we are no longer accepting registrations for this course. Please contact our office to find out if it will be rescheduled, or if alternative classes are available.

Course Description

All day Saturday seminar

Mark Croatti, Program Coordinator and Moderator

Donald Trump, the incumbent and impeached president (but not removed), is very popular with his base but equally unpopular beyond it. His polarizing term was highlighted by a booming economy; improved trade deals with Mexico and Canada; a North Korean summit; and two Supreme Court appointments. However, he's been criticized at home and abroad for trade wars with China and the EU; withdrawals from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Paris Climate Accords, and Iranian nuclear deal; an immigration policy that includes a border wall as well as accelerated deportations and separated children; and a mixed-message coronavirus response. Former VP Joe Biden would be the oldest president ever elected (over Trump), yet in six out of the last seven elections, the Democratic Party nominee received the most popular votes (but didn't win the Electoral College or become president). Which party will win the 2020 presidential election, control the House and Senate, and elect the most governors and state legislators? We'll predict the November 3 winners and look ahead to Maryland's 2022 Gubernatorial Election!

9:00am - 10:30am: Party Control on Capitol Hill in 2021: A Numerical Forecast

The 2020 Congressional Elections promise to excite both citizen and political scientist alike. Partisan gerrymandering has resulted in a surprisingly small number of House of Representatives races that are actually competitive. We will look at several of the top contests from around the country in urban, suburban, and rural areas and then examine the Pennsylvania Congressional races specifically since the Keystone State once again proving to be a top battleground within the 2020 presidential election. The U.S. Senate elections will hinge in some parts over the impeachment saga and in the level of voter discomfort or approval with the President's volatile personality; thus, we'll examine several factors that will determine which political party will emerge with the majority in both chambers.

Jon Price, M.A., is a lecturer in History and Political Science at the Pennsylvania State University's York Campus. His area of expertise is U.S. political and labor history with a specific focus on the 1890-1940 period. Mr. Price spent 16 years as a policy adviser to the House Democratic Majority leader in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and one year as the Legislative Director of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental under Democratic Governor Edward Rendell. He has bachelor's and master's degrees in history from Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania. A four-time candidate for public office, Mr. Price spent nine years as an elected official in Pennsylvania's Lancaster County.

10:45am - 12:15pm: State Legislative and Gubernatorial Elections: A State by State Analysis

Former Progressive Republican Wisconsin Governor and Senator Robert LaFollette (1855-1925) often referred to state governments as the "Laboratory of Democracy." By this he meant that policies at the state and local level often percolated upward to influence public policies at the national level. The 2010 gubernatorial and state legislative races set the stage for a shift in control at the state level and ultimately for the control of Congress. We will begin this session by looking at a brief history of redistricting and reappointment and what exactly occurred in 2010 and then examine several states to see who will control the balance of power and what issues might see emerge in 2021 based on what political party emerges as dominant. Next, we'll focus specifically on the Pennsylvania legislature and analyze how the 2010 redistricting affected the balance of power for the rest of the decade. Finally, we'll explore the most competitive governor races in the 2020 election.

Justin Klos, M.S., has spent 22 years analyzing voting behavior, demographics, and elections in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and traveled to Ukraine to observe their elections and government. As Director of the Pennsylvania General Assembly's Office of Demographic Analysis, he is the Democratic staff lead for the legislative and congressional redistricting processes in Pennsylvania. Mr. Klos has a bachelor's degree in political science and a master's degree in geographic information systems, both from the Pennsylvania State University.

Lunch 12:15pm - 1:30pm

1:30pm - 3:00pm: The 2020 Presidential Election: A Crystal Ball

This panel will review the 2020 Democratic Party primary winners and the Electoral College results from the 2016 election and then assess the general election prospects of both President Trump and his Democratic challenger. We will also discuss the key issues upon which the election will hinge on and the expectations for how various voter groups will turnout and perform on November 3.

Thomas F. Schaller, Ph.D., is professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. He is the author of The Stronghold: How Republicans Captured Congress but Surrendered the White House, Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South, and co-author of Devolution and Black State Legislators: Challenges and Choices in the Twenty-First Century. A former political columnist for the Baltimore Sun, he has published commentaries in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, The American Prospect, Politico, and The New Republic, and has appeared on ABC News, MSNBC, The Colbert Report, National Public Radio and C-SPAN. Since 2004, Schaller has given lectures on American elections in 19 countries on behalf of the U.S. State Department.

3:15pm - 4:45pm: Maryland's 2022 Gubernatorial Election: A Sneak Preview

Larry Hogan, a popular two term governor and the first Republican re-elected since 1954, will leave a gaping hole in the political landscape when he leaves office in 2019. No one particular Republican heir seems apparent in terms of either political ideology or electoral popularity. "Hoganism" can be defined as a willingness to work with both sides of the aisle on recognizably partisan issues--including the high cost of health care and college tuition-while remaining committed to conservative principles such as private sector innovation and low taxes. Which potential candidates currently under the radar-Republican or Democratic, male or female, currently in the state legislature or elsewhere within state/county/local government-is thinking of becoming the next Governor of Maryland, and can they live up to the lofty standards set by their predecessor?

Mark Croatti, M.A., teaches Comparative Politics at The George Washington University. In the course of his coverage of state government as a journalist since 2003, he has interviewed the last three governors, including Hogan, for the magazine What's Up? Annapolis.